Extended-range prediction and warnings for heatwaves
The increasing frequency of heatwaves under climate change represents a global crisis. Extreme heatwaves now increasingly occur in places that did not experience such extremes in the past. This crisis could be mitigated by advance prediction and ample warnings, since the time for countries, cities and municipalities to prepare for heatwaves is often longer than the current warning timescale for heatwaves. Indeed, there is potential for issuing heat warnings beyond currently used warning timescales, since heatwaves are the most predictable extreme weather events, with predictable lead times of several weeks in advance.
This presentation will focus on the potential of heatwave prediction and warnings on timescales of days to weeks, including an evaluation of the benefits of such warnings for human lives and livelihoods in the framework of the “HEATaware” project.
Prof. Daniela Domeisen
In her research, Daniela focuses on weather and climate variability and predictability from regional to global scales, with the goal of an improved understanding of the dynamics of weather and climate through the study of extreme events, global remote connections, and interactions between components of the climate system using statistical tools and a hierarchy from simple to high performance numerical models. One of the goals of her research is the successful prediction of extreme events to increase preparedness and to reduce impacts.
Latest epidemiological research on heat & human health
Heat is considered the deadliest climate-related hazard in developed countries, responsible for more than 20 deaths per 100,000 people in Europe. Additionally, heat is associated with an increased risk of hospitalizations due to cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, among others. Substantial research and policy efforts have been invested to better understand mechanisms and vulnerabilities from heat exposure and develop. Despite that, heat continues to pose a significant health risk, with a substantial health burden attributed to it in every region of the world.
The talk will cover the latest research on the impact of heat on human health in terms of large geographical assessments, differential vulnerability, and attribution of heat-health impacts to climate change.
Prof. Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera
University of Bern
Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera is an environmental epidemiologist with wide expertise on climate change and health research. She has led and collaborated in several international epidemiological studies on climate change impacts, in particular within the Multi-City Multi-Country (MCC) Collaborative Research Network. She has led and collaborated in research projects funded by national and international agencies. She was also a contributing author of the WGII of the 6th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.